永无止境
贝森特出手强压美债利率 城堡证券警告：搞“金融抑制”恐伤美元_我的网站
一 |
Chinese scientists studying a 244-million-year-old ichthyosaur Mixosaurus fossil from Southwest China’s Guizhou Province found at least 11 embryos inside the specimen. The discovery sets a new record for the highest number of embryos found in ichthyosaur lineages and reveals that high reproductive capacity in ichthyosaurs emerged earlier than previously believed, chinanews.com reported on Wednesday.
Ichthyosaur was among the most successful Mesozoic marine reptiles, and its reproductive strategy was considered crucial to their adaptation to ocean environments. Its reproductive ability before extinction has long intrigued paleontologists.
A joint research team from the Institute of Vertebrate Paleontology and Paleoanthropology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), and the Zhejiang Museum of Natural History, has published the study on the ichthyosaur paleontology in the international journal PeerJ.
According to Wang Wei, the paper’s corresponding author and an associate professor at the institute, embryo-preserving ichthyosaur fossils have been found across 11 genera from the Early Triassic to the Early Cretaceous.
However, for ichthyosaur groups that diverged in the Early Triassic, embryo-bearing fossils known to scientists remain scarce, and knowledge about the number of offspring they carried is especially limited. Previous discoveries of pregnant specimens, such as Chaohusaurus and Mixosaurus, contained no more than three embryos, suggesting limited early reproductive capacity among early ichthyosaurs.
According to Gu Shengxiao, the paper’s first author and a researcher at the Zhejiang Museum of Natural History, the study examined an almost complete adult Mixosaurus panxianensis fossil from Guizhou’s Middle Triassic strata, dating back about 244 million years. The specimen measures 112 centimeters long, including a skull length of 22 centimeters, with only the tail tip missing.
The researchers identified 11 fetal ichthyosaur skeletons with skulls inside the adult specimen’s abdomen, confirming they were embryos rather than cannibalized prey based on their position and morphology. There are also fossil pieces outside the belly of the adult, which could belong to the 11 or represent other embryos.
All embryos in the Mixosaurus panxianensis fossil were at a similar late developmental stage, suggesting the mother died shortly before giving birth, according to the researchers.
The Mixosaurus panxianensis fossil containing at least 11 embryos sets a record for Triassic ichthyosaurs and all known ichthyosaur species. The researchers believe this indicates that Mixosaurus may have adopted a reproductive strategy of producing large numbers of offspring in a single birth. This exceptionally high reproductive capacity may have provided them with a survival advantage.
Among Triassic ichthyosaurs and all known ichthyosaur groups, Mixosaurus is the genus with the largest number of fossil specimens and is also one of the most widely distributed ichthyosaurs.
The researchers said the multi-embryo Mixosaurus panxianensis fossil may represent an extreme case, but it confirms the species’ ability to produce large numbers of offspring, potentially contributing to its dominance among contemporaneous marine reptiles.
The study offers the first fossil evidence of high fertility in Triassic ichthyosaurs. Future research will examine other embryo-bearing Triassic ichthyosaurs to determine whether a multiple-offspring reproductive strategy was common in early ichthyosaur evolution and what factors drove this trait, Wang said.
Global Times
。 对于美国财政部试图强行压制长端美债利率的动向，华尔街提出了另一层担忧：把美债问题压下去的同时，美元会不会被动承压。 作为最新的案例，城堡证券在最新报告中指出，美国财政部试图通过国债回购来压低长期融资成本的做法，本质上属于一种“金融抑制”（financial repression），可能削弱美元，并加剧通胀压力。
二 | 在长期美债收益率升至多年高位后，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特上周扩大了国债回购计划。周一的最新消息显示，除了增发短期国债外，贝森特可能动用财政部一般账户（即财政部存放在美联储的现金余额）为这些回购操作提供资金。 城堡证券认为，这种干预可能会把市场对于财政前景和通胀的担忧，从美债市场转移到外汇市场。
三 | 因为较低的美债收益率会削弱美元资产的吸引力，从而可能导致美元走弱，并进一步推高进口商品价格。 “更广泛地说，这实际上已经在边际上构成了‘金融抑制’，”城堡证券欧洲、中东和非洲固定收益销售主管诺沙德·沙阿（Nohshad Shah）在报告中写道。
四 | “阻止美国国债以更低价格完成市场出清，并不会消除这种压力，只不过是把压力转移到了其他地方。
五 | ” 沙阿进一步表示，压低长期收益率并不能消除推动利率上升的根本经济力量。在就业接近充分、人工智能领域投资规模庞大的背景下，宽松的财政和货币政策仍在刺激经济。
六 | 美元走弱将进一步放松金融条件，并可能通过刺激需求、推高进口商品价格等渠道增加通胀压力。 所以兜兜转转，一切又回到了问题的原点：美联储和美国财政部都需要做好自己的份内事。 沙阿写道：“债券市场释放的信息非常直接：财政政策或货币政策应该收紧。真正具有持久效果的解决方案，不是反复干预市场，而是在财政政策上作出更艰难的选择，同时央行也需要主动走在通胀前面——如果有必要，甚至应该通过加息来做到这一点。” 与城堡证券类似，多家知名机构也对美元的前景感到担忧。华尔街还将其称为“货币贬值交易”（debasement trade），这个术语指的是投资者会抛售容易受到冲击的货币或证券，转而投资黄金等“避险”资产。
七 | 其中，德意志银行的全球外汇研究主管George Saravelos指出，如果美国国债的市场价格“不被‘允许’下跌”，那么外国投资者所持美国国债的外汇价格就必须通过美元走弱来进行调整。 布鲁金斯学会高级研究员Robin Brooks更是直言美国财政部在“玩火”。他警告称，在不解决财政失衡问题的情况下，试图压低长期收益率，可能会将压力从债券转移至货币。 Brooks指出，这场危机可能不会演变成债务危机，而是转化为货币危机。而日本近些年的情况，以及日元长期走弱便是一个警示性例子。
（文章来源：财联社）。
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